About the Video
Potential market trends for 2023 – from earnings compression to Fed Pivot, AI as the next bubble and the oil market bull run.
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โฌ๏ธ Timestamps:
0:00 โ Introduction
0:45 โ Earnings Compression
3:29 โ Fed Pivot
6:30 โ Artificial Intelligence – The Next Bubble
8:31 โ Oil Market Bull Run
10:41 โ Summary of Key Things to Look Out For
12:16 โ Analystsโ S&P500 Outlook (2023)
Earlier in Dec 2022, J.P.Morgan cut its 2023 earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies, citing weaker demand and pricing power, margin compression, and limited buy-backs. JPM strategists now estimate S&P 500 earnings per share for 2023 to be $205, down 9% from an earlier forecast of $225.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to as high as 5.1% in 2023 before the central bank ends its fight against runaway inflation, according to its median forecast released on 14 Dec 2022. The expected โterminal rateโ of 5.1% is equivalent to a target range of 5%-5.25%. The series of rate hikes is expected to slow down the economy.
A recently published report has suggested that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble is due to burst after several years of sustained hype has generated unrealistic expectations that cannot be met and excessive investments that cannot possibly be paid back. According to Riot Research, the AI market will only reach $39 billion globally by 2023, considerably less than previous estimates.
Oil prices might be down, but several catalysts could push crude higher in 2023. Oil prices rallied from less than $80 a barrel to more than $125 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier in 2022. That more than 20% plunge in crude oil prices means oil is in a bear market. However, a new bull market for oil looks to be coming next year.
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