The Calm Before the Crash – Watch Out.

About the Video

Weekly stock market analysis – Economic Updates, Existing Home Sales (July), FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Retail Sales (July) and more.

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⬇️Timestamps:
0:00 → Economic Updates
3:03 → Existing Home Sales (July)
3:54 → FOMC Meeting Minutes
5:28 → US Retail Sales Report (July)
6:40 → Upcoming Important Dates

Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a sixth straight month in July in the latest indication of how high borrowing costs and waning demand are propelling the housing market’s rapid decline. Contract closings fell 5.9% in July to an annualized 4.81 million, the weakest since May 2020, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Thursday. Sales have fallen 22.4% from a year ago.

The FOMC minutes confirmed that re-establishing price stability remains the principal objective of the Fed. The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict will only add to the upside risk. Additionally, the labor market has continued to strengthen, with employment having surpassed pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate on par with its February 2020 level. The Fed also acknowledged that their task is highly uncertain, and there is a risk that it could tighten rates by “more than necessary”.

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in July as falling gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations, but consumer spending appeared to pick up at the start of the third quarter, further assuaging fears the economy was in a recession.

The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has been inverted for more than a month, and is now standing at -0.26%. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession, coming most recently before downturns in 1990, 2001, and 2008. While brief inversions typically don’t predict a downturn, ones that last beyond a momentary flashing can have stronger predictive power.

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