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Weekly stock market analysis – Economic Updates, PMI (Services Industry), Producers Price Index (PPI) and more.
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โฌ๏ธTimestamps:
0:00 โ Economic Updates
2:32 โ Sponsor Ad (moomoo)
3:12 โ PMI (Services Industry)
4:23 โ Producer Price Index (PPI)
5:13 โ Upcoming Important Dates
The Federal Reserve is set keeps rates at their peak throughout 2023, dashing hopes markets have priced in for rate cuts in the second half and making a recession very likely. Policymakers will most likely raise rates by 50 basis points on 14th December, following four consecutive 75 basis-point hikes in 2022, and by quarter points at the following two meetings.
The FOMCโs median projection is expected to show the policy benchmark peaking at 4.9% in 2023 โ reflecting a 4.75%-5% target range โ compared to 4.6% seen in September. That would deliver a hawkish surprise to investors, who currently bet that rates will be cut by a half percentage point in the second half of next year, though they too see rates peaking around 4.9%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)โs gauge of services rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, according to data released Monday. The firmer services reading contrasts with ISMโs manufacturing data, which showed last week that factory activity contracted for the first time since May 2020. US producers are feeling the pinch from a global economic slowdown as well as an inventory overhang at some domestic retailers.
US producer prices rose in November by more than forecast, driven by services and underscoring the stickiness of inflationary pressures that supports Federal Reserve interest-rate increases into 2023. The producer price index (PPI) for final demand climbed 0.3% for a third month and was up 7.4% from a year earlier.
The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has been inverted for more than a month, and is now standing at -0.8%. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession, coming most recently before downturns in 1990, 2001, and 2008. While brief inversions typically don’t predict a downturn, ones that last beyond a momentary flashing can have stronger predictive power.
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Disclaimer: The content on this channel is for educational purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions. In order to make the best financial decision that suits your own needs, you must conduct your own research and seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor if necessary.
