{"id":356440,"date":"2022-08-08T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/?p=356440"},"modified":"2024-10-04T15:22:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T07:22:33","slug":"this-leading-indicator-is-warning-us-dont-ignore-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/playlist\/us-stock-market-updates-analysis\/this-leading-indicator-is-warning-us-dont-ignore-it\/","title":{"rendered":"This Leading Indicator is Warning Us (Don&#8217;t Ignore It)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><iframe title=\"This Leading Indicator is Warning Us (Don&#039;t Ignore It)\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/HMWFpvIhQuk?list=PLNtoL6rfNKdmxFjrkYKTRddjZOU_6yXpY\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized has-custom-border\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=HMWFpvIhQuk&amp;list=PLNtoL6rfNKdmxFjrkYKTRddjZOU_6yXpY&amp;index=6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"313\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Listen-on-Youtube-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-354936\" style=\"border-radius:5px;width:180px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Listen-on-Youtube-logo.png 1080w, https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Listen-on-Youtube-logo-300x87.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Listen-on-Youtube-logo-1024x297.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ziet.co\/v2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Listen-on-Youtube-logo-768x223.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About the Video<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Weekly stock market analysis &#8211; Yield curve inversion, US Jobs Report, OPEC+ announcement, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), earnings update, global chip slowdown, Nancy Pelosi and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udd34 \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01 \ud835\udddc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\udddc\ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddde\ud835\udde5 \u27a1\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/redirect?event=video_description&amp;redir_token=QUFFLUhqbmNRdVNXc3ctSHVhbVNZai1mVDlWbFUzLVZzQXxBQ3Jtc0tsZTBZX0tuX2gzU3V3WmxZSjdRZ1ZINlBWUWlIdXVETXloWi1Tam9ER29UYTRSMlNpRVlWM0NyYlRuYy1nUm1wN3hUSUlzc1BmWHNoM3MtSUxQZWpyLWlIU000MU1hcW5Hb3Jsd1JKZXZWUzZuTm1kQQ&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.interactivebrokers.com%2Fmkt%2F%3Fsrc%3DzietPY2%26url%3D%252Fen%252Fwhyib%252Foverview.php%253Fnored%253Dt&amp;v=Oxwn31FpBqo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2b07\ufe0fTimestamps:<br>0:00 \u2192 Yield Curve Inversion<br>0:38 \u2192 US Jobs Report (July)<br>1:34 \u2192 S&amp;P GSCI Index<br>1:52 \u2192 OPEC+ Announcement (Oil Prices)<br>2:43 \u2192 US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)<br>4:21 \u2192 Earnings Update<br>6:02 \u2192 Semiconductor Slowdown<br>6:51 \u2192 Nancy Pelosi, Taiwan and China<br>7:55 \u2192 Upcoming Important Date<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has been inverted for more than a month, and is now standing at -0.403%. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession, coming most recently before downturns in 1990, 2001, and 2008. While brief inversions typically don&#8217;t predict a downturn, ones that last beyond a momentary flashing can have stronger predictive power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6%, respectively. The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level and tied for the lowest since 1969. Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>OPEC and its allies cited the prospect of slowing demand in its decision to lift supply by just 100,000 barrels a day, a tiny fraction of the group\u2019s overall production and a far smaller increase than it has added in recent months. Reports said they are concerned that a potential recession in the US and Covid-19 lockdowns in China will sour demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Relations between the US and China have plummeted into further uncertainty as China halted ties with the US on a range of critical issues \u2013 from talks on the climate crisis to dialogue between their militaries \u2013 following the visit to Taiwan last week by the US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi. China launched ballistic missiles during live fire exercises near Taiwan following the controversial visit, as a warning sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2757\ufe0fUSEFUL LINKS\u2757\ufe0f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2705Start Investing in the U.S. market now!\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb<br>\u2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLNtoL6rfNKdm_1un9xXF5zv7-lsaLwgVV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing in the US market<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2705Full Interactive Brokers Playlist\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb<br>\u2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLNtoL6rfNKdmoHyOx4ft2q9L3ue1HjE8n\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Interactive Brokers Guide<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2705Beginner&#8217;s Step-By-Step Playlist to Start Investing \ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb<br>\u2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLNtoL6rfNKdkmIijHCaNqj19QaWzXWY1q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Beginner&#8217;s Guide to Investing<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2705Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Playlist \ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb<br>\u2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLNtoL6rfNKdk74aq-253KcjLIFfn9Z6Y4\">Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\u2705\ud83c\udfa5All the gears that I use to make my YouTube videos: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/redirect?event=video_description&amp;redir_token=QUFFLUhqbS1Ra3UyYUE4YS1pUk1tTkd4aEVZSmd0QW9MQXxBQ3Jtc0tsQlVDbDlZWDUwZkx2UVk1RHlqY1BfN1dKLVJQN1o2RGQ3c2xrZzByOUo1cW8wSkNHUkZYNmVtWW16X3VRS2R6UUFKZS03ZGFPQzVWdWpadkJLdFNqZzN6MTJmaDNHc1RzZ0otbnl4TEFDVGxwMUtFVQ&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fkit.co%2FZiet%2Fyoutube-gears&amp;v=Oxwn31FpBqo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:5px;background-color:#f5f5f7\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Follow Ziet<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-social-links has-icon-color is-style-default is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-social-links-is-layout-1 wp-block-social-links-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-right:0;margin-left:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0\"><li style=\"color: var(--ast-global-color-5); 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In order to make the best financial decision that suits your own needs, you must conduct your own research and seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor if necessary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About the Video Weekly stock market analysis &#8211; Yield curve inversion, US Jobs Report, OPEC+ announcement, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), earnings update, global chip slowdown, Nancy Pelosi and more. \ud83d\udd34 \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01 \ud835\udddc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\udddc\ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddde\ud835\udde5 \u27a1\ufe0f Click Here \u2b07\ufe0fTimestamps:0:00 \u2192 Yield Curve Inversion0:38 \u2192 US Jobs Report (July)1:34 \u2192 S&amp;P GSCI Index1:52 \u2192 OPEC+ Announcement (Oil Prices)2:43 \u2192 US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)4:21 \u2192 Earnings Update6:02 \u2192 Semiconductor Slowdown6:51 \u2192 Nancy Pelosi, Taiwan and China7:55 \u2192 Upcoming Important Date The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has been inverted for more than a month, and is now standing at -0.403%. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession, coming most recently before downturns in 1990, 2001, and 2008. While brief inversions typically don&#8217;t predict a downturn, ones that last beyond a momentary flashing can have stronger predictive power. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6%, respectively. The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level and tied for the lowest since 1969. Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago. OPEC and its allies cited the prospect of slowing demand in its decision to lift supply by just 100,000 barrels a day, a tiny fraction of the group\u2019s overall production and a far smaller increase than it has added in recent months. Reports said they are concerned that a potential recession in the US and Covid-19 lockdowns in China will sour demand. Relations between the US and China have plummeted into further uncertainty as China halted ties with the US on a range of critical issues \u2013 from talks on the climate crisis to dialogue between their militaries \u2013 following the visit to Taiwan last week by the US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi. China launched ballistic missiles during live fire exercises near Taiwan following the controversial visit, as a warning sign. \u2757\ufe0fUSEFUL LINKS\u2757\ufe0f \u2705Start Investing in the U.S. market now!\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb\u2022 Investing in the US market \u2705Full Interactive Brokers Playlist\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb\u2022 Interactive Brokers Guide \u2705Beginner&#8217;s Step-By-Step Playlist to Start Investing \ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb\u2022 Beginner&#8217;s Guide to Investing \u2705Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Playlist \ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb\u2022 Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) \u2705\ud83c\udfa5All the gears that I use to make my YouTube videos: Click Here Follow Ziet Disclaimer: The content on this channel is for educational purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions. In order to make the best financial decision that suits your own needs, you must conduct your own research and seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor if necessary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":356442,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[19,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-356440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-playlist","category-us-stock-market-updates-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v18.3 (Yoast SEO v23.8) - 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